Advocata’s Bath Curry Indicator (BCI) , which tracks the monthly changes in the retail price of food, recorded an increase of 14% from March 2022 to April 2022. This is a year on year increase of 49% for this basket of food.
This is driven primarily by prices of dhal and samba rice being the highest recorded by the BCI. A kilo of Dhal in April 2021 was Rs 178, a year later it costs Rs 466. A kilo of samba in April 2021 was close to Rs 130, a year later this costs Rs 210. With food prices increasing at this rate, a family of four to spend on the BCI basket of food would have to pay approximately Rs 560 more for a week.
The Colombo consumer price index recorded a similar rate of 47% year on year increase in food inflation. Comparing supermarket food prices from March 2021 to 2022 there has been an increase of close to 40%.
This drastic increase in food prices in 2022 is a result of macroeconomic instability within the country. Although global prices have increased due to the pandemic and issues with supply chains, global prices have not increased as fast as the prices in Sri Lanka.
In Sri Lanka in addition to the global pandemic related issues, we are currently facing shortages of foreign currency which impacts local supply chains. This impact has also been exacerbated by consistent import restrictions, both causing shortages. These shortages compounded by the fact that the value of the currency has been falling steeply have all contributed to food prices rising faster and faster in 2022.
The BCI tracks the weekly retail prices in the Colombo market of the most commonly consumed food ingredients that might be used in a typical Buth curry meal. The prices are collected from the “Weekly Indicators” that the Central Bank publishes.
The BCI Indicator can be accessed at www.bci.advocata.org.Advocata is an independent policy think tank based in Colombo, Sri Lanka. We conduct research, provide commentary and hold events to promote sound policy ideas compatible with a free society in Sri Lanka. Visit advocata.org for more information.
So there seems to be a strong reason to hold the LKR during the lockdown period ?