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London-based Anton Balasingham said the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam would retreat from talks with the government if they are listed by the 25-member European Union (EU) as a terrorist group.
Balasingham said the EU plan was to isolate the Tigers, and force them back to stalled ceasefire talks and negotiations on a formal peace process on hold since April 2003.
But he warned the strategy would backfire.
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"I gravely doubt that the LTTE leadership will bow down to pressure and humiliation," Balasingham said in remarks published in the pro-rebel Tamilnet.com website.
"As such this move will be counter-productive.
Faced with global isolation and humiliation, the LTTE may be compelled to stay away from further talks.
"
Government spokesman Keheliya Rambukwella said an EU-wide ban on the Tigers should not halt the peace process.
"We are ready to talk with them even if the entire world bans them," Rambukwella told AFP.
"There is a message in this for the LTTE to give up terror and enter