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Sri Lanka rupee weakens to new life low

April 01, 2009 (LBO) - The Sri Lanka rupee traded at a new low of 116.
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10 rupees against the greenback Wednesday dealers said, heightening expectations of a successful deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
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In a pegged country rate cuts are achieved by further monetizations of deficits (printing money) unless the government reduces spending.
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This will increase the pressure on the exchange rate and foreign reserve losses.
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Countries that want to fix a balance of payments crisis either have to curb government spending and raise taxes, or put up with high interest rates.

Spendthrift Sri Lankan rulers have displayed a market reluctance to curb spending, but have started to raise taxes of late.

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Currency crises are a problem associated with countries that have 'soft-pegs', which are also known as managed floats.

Update 2 A float of the currency to break a peg defence cycle of simultaneous interventions in forex markets and domestic money markets (sterilized interventions) is vital for an IMF bailout to succeed.

In most IMF bailouts, called a 'stand-by arrangement' where peg defence is the key cause of the crisis, a float is a 'prior action' before the first tranche is disbursed following board approval.

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Authorities have resisted a flexible exchange rate, but money printed to sterilize reserve outflows has pushed the rupee down from 108.



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00 in September to current levels even as imports and the oil bill plummeted.

On Tuesday the rupee traded as low as 115.

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80 against the US dollar, dealers said.

A quick 'staff level' agreement could result in IMF board approval about two weeks later.



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Sri Lanka has asked for 1.9 billion dollars from the IMF and the island needs to curb spending to stop monetizing debt to halt a balance of payments crisis.

With 12-month inflation falling to 7.6 percent in February and 5.3 percent in March, the central bank has also cut interest rates aggressively.

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