First Capital Research believes that there is a significant probability (90%) to hold policy rates due to the considerable improvement in high-frequency indicators with the fiscal and monetary measures implemented so far. However, there is a 10% probability for a 25bps rate hike to balance external pressure.
"As per our view, CBSL either can choose to hold policy rates steady or hike by 25bps while, a rate cut is off the table due to the high debt repayment and the high domestic borrowing requirement," First Capital said in a research note.
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"Towards the 2H 2021E, we expect a continued increase in probability for a rate hike in order to prevent overheating of the economy amidst the given fiscal and monetary stimulus.
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However, the probability for maintaining rates continues to be the majority probability for the rest of the year."